Confidential

Russian Military Bases in Egypt

The presence of Russian forces in Libya, as well as the alleged presence of PMC’s in CAR, have highly likely pushed the creation of a military base in Egypt. Key Judgements KJ-1. The frequency and intensity of Russian activity in…

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Confidential

Why is Russia Building Military Bases in Sudan?

The German newspaper Bild has brought to light that Russia is building military bases in Sudan. This would be a significant increase from the military footprint that it already possess within the state. There were reports and video evidence in…

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Confidential

Russian Military Base in Mozambique: Intent, Impact & Impediment

This Grey Dynamics African Intelligence report analyses the potential establishment of a Russian military base in Mozambique. The geopolitical, economic, and military benefits and impact of a Russian base will be explored. Key Judgments KJ-1. Based on the leak from…

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Confidential

Naval Expansionism: Russian Naval Base in Eritrea

Scenario Generation This report examines the geopolitical context in the Red Sea and the potential implications of a Russian naval base in Eritrea. Using both diagnostic and predictive analysis, the author assesses the current situation and delivers predictive judgements regarding…

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Wagner: Russia’s ‘Non-State State Actor’ Part IV

    Libya had amassed a debt of no less than $4.6 billion to Russia by 2008, largely stemming from the Soviet era. President Putin travelled to Libya and met Gaddafi in ’08 and wrote off the entire debt. In…

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Confidential

Wagner: Russia’s ‘Non-State State Actor’ Part II

By mid-2017, two Russian companies had received contracts in Syria offering security services in return for natural resources. Evro Polis, as mentioned in Part 1, was to receive 25% of natural gas and oil produced from fields in which they…

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Confidential

Egypt and Israel’s Dirty Little Secret

Just days into 2019 it was reported that Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi had been subject to an interview by the CBS television show 60 Minutes, an interview Egypt’s envoy to the US requested not to be broadcast shortly after…

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Conflict in Tigray
Confidential

Predictive Analysis of Conflict in Tigray, Ethiopia

Key Judgements KJ-1. Armed conflict will highly likely continue and de-centralise in the following 6 weeks. Ethnic-driven civilian militias and the large unregistered amount of firearms make it highly likely that armed confrontations involving Tigrayan ethnicities will occur. KJ-2. Conflict…

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Confidential

North Korean Small Arms Proliferation and Identification

This report seeks to offer an assessment of North Korean small arms proliferation and identification, with a focus on Africa. Key Judgements North Korea can export its large stockpile of historic small arms, which are indistinguishable from North Korean small…

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Confidential

Libyan Civil War: Shifting Balance of Power

The Government of National Accord (GNA) and the House of Representatives (HoR) are in the midst of a second bloody Libyan civil war. The GNA is based in one of Libya’s main cities, Tripoli, whereas the HoR is based in…

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