Confidential

Libyan Civil War: Saudi Arabia & UAE Involvement

Both the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia (SA) provide the Libyan National Army with Logistical and financial support. Key Judgement KJ-1. It is almost certain the UAE and Saudi Arabia back the LNA fiscally and logistically in the Libyan…

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Confidential

Libyan Civil War: Shifting Balance of Power

The Government of National Accord (GNA) and the House of Representatives (HoR) are in the midst of a second bloody Libyan civil war. The GNA is based in one of Libya’s main cities, Tripoli, whereas the HoR is based in…

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Confidential

Libyan Civil War: Qatar Involvement

This report examines Qatar’s interests in Libya and the reasoning of its financial support for the GNA. As the geopolitical context in the region remains volatile, the timing for prediction has been settled for six months. For collection and processing,…

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Confidential

Libya: Shifting Into a Stalemated Proxy War

  Analysis As Libya’s complex civil war seems set to drag into a seventh calendar year, peace does not seem any closer to being achieved. One of the two rival governments, based in Tobruk, has the support of what some…

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Confidential

Muslim Brotherhood: A Tug-of-War in Africa

Turkey, Qatar, and the Brotherhood As the other Gulf States increasingly began opposing the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and political Islam groups after the Arab Spring in fear of the future of their own regimes’ stability, Qatar chose a different course…

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Confidential

DP World: Emirati Expansionism in Africa?

Key Judgement The expansion of DP World supports UAE ambitions of controlling maritime commerce across a vast network. This links the Americas, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Military expansion near the Gulf is to secure these interests, as…

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Confidential

Russian Military Bases in Egypt

The presence of Russian forces in Libya, as well as the alleged presence of PMC’s in CAR, have highly likely pushed the creation of a military base in Egypt. Key Judgements KJ-1. The frequency and intensity of Russian activity in…

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Confidential

“Jihadi Drug”: Captagon Proliferation

Captagon Background Fenetylline, which was marketed as Captagon or the ‘Jihadi Drug’ during the 1960s and 1970s, was initially used to treat ADHD, depression and narcolepsy. In 1986 it was included in Schedule II of the UN Convention on Psychotropic…

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Confidential

Haftar’s Move on Tripoli

In January 2019, the Libyan National Army’s (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar’s siege on the Fezzan in Libya put him in control of about two-thirds of the Libyan territory, vast energy infrastructure, and armed forces through forming of alliances. In my…

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