Confidential

Turkish Drones Circling Somalia as Election Violence Looms

While Somalia has agreed to de-escalate tensions with Kenya, President Mohamed Farmaajo, with the assistance of Turkey, will likely fortify FSG assets in the Gedo region with Turkish drones. This is likely to be in the pursuit of a position…

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Confidential

Libyan Civil War: Shifting Balance of Power

The Government of National Accord (GNA) and the House of Representatives (HoR) are in the midst of a second bloody Libyan civil war. The GNA is based in one of Libya’s main cities, Tripoli, whereas the HoR is based in…

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Confidential

Libyan Civil War: Qatar Involvement

This report examines Qatar’s interests in Libya and the reasoning of its financial support for the GNA. As the geopolitical context in the region remains volatile, the timing for prediction has been settled for six months. For collection and processing,…

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Confidential

Libyan Civil War: Saudi Arabia & UAE Involvement

Both the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia (SA) provide the Libyan National Army with Logistical and financial support. Key Judgement KJ-1. It is almost certain the UAE and Saudi Arabia back the LNA fiscally and logistically in the Libyan…

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Confidential

Libya: Shifting Into a Stalemated Proxy War

  Analysis As Libya’s complex civil war seems set to drag into a seventh calendar year, peace does not seem any closer to being achieved. One of the two rival governments, based in Tobruk, has the support of what some…

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Confidential

SADAT: Turkey’s Paramilitary Wings Take Flight in Africa

This Grey Dynamics African Intelligence Article analyses the SADAT paramilitary group, and the political de facto implications placed on Turkish-African relations and security amid an increase in cooperation between Turkey and African states. Turkey’s private military contractor, SADAT, has been…

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Confidential

Zaslon: Russia’s Most Secretive Unit

What is Zaslon? Zaslon “Barrier or Screen” is Russia’s most secretive special-purpose unit within the Russian external security service, Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedki (SVR). It roughly resembles the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) or the British Secret Intelligence Service (SIS)–also known…

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Confidential

DP World: Emirati Expansionism in Africa?

Key Judgement The expansion of DP World supports UAE ambitions of controlling maritime commerce across a vast network. This links the Americas, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Military expansion near the Gulf is to secure these interests, as…

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Grey Wolves: Turkey’s Shadow Network Facing Backlash in Europe

Grey Wolves was founded by Alparslan Türkeş in 1969, a former Turkish Army colonel, in what he described as a response to the country moving away from nationalist principles. Key Judgement  KJ-1. The Grey Wolves’ (Bozkurtlar/Ülkü Ocakları) ultra-nationalistic and Islamist…

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Confidential

Death From Above: Drone Swarms & Loitering Munitions

A recent video released by the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC) has raised the profile of the use of drone swarms and Loitering munitions in future combat applications. Although it is appropriate to be sceptical of footage released by…

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