Conflict in Tigray
Confidential

Predictive Analysis of Conflict in Tigray, Ethiopia

Key Judgements KJ-1. Armed conflict will highly likely continue and de-centralise in the following 6 weeks. Ethnic-driven civilian militias and the large unregistered amount of firearms make it highly likely that armed confrontations involving Tigrayan ethnicities will occur. KJ-2. Conflict…

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Confidential

Tigray Conflict: Potential Ethiopian Civil War

Ethiopian military official said the air force was “pounding targets with precision” in Tigray. Tensions between the Ethiopian and local government in the province have simmered for months, and the conflict risks becoming a full-blown Ethiopian civil war. Here is…

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Confidential

Ethiopia Joins Saudi Arabia’s Travel Ban

On the 12th March, Saudi Arabia declared a travel ban to Ethiopia. This was despite the country having no confirmed cases. The entry of non-nationals nonetheless was halted. Friday 13th Ethiopia joined the undesirable list of countries with a confirmed COVID-19 case….

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Confidential

Current Al-Shabaab Threat to Ethiopia

Key Judgements KJ-1. It is highly likely Al-Shabaab will continue to be a threat to Ethiopia, however their capabilities are reduced and the AMISOM has been productive in containing threat, they have failed to mount a large-scale attack on Ethiopia. …

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Confidential

Coup Attempt in Ethiopia

The coup attempt on 22 June 2019 against the President Abiy of Ethiopia was yet another threat to his government and reformist agenda. Since his election in 2018, Abiy signalled that he wishes to end the decades of repressive regimes…

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Confidential

Ethiopia: The Promise of Democracy is Marred by Ethnic Conflict

  In 2018, more people were displaced in Ethiopia than in any other country in the world. According to the United Nations, by December last year, approximately 2.9 million people were forced to leave their homes, more than in Syria,…

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Confidential

Cuba´s Expansionism in the Horn of Africa

Cuba’s expansionism: motivations in Ethiopia Cuba´s expansionism in Algeria, Guinea-Bissau or Zanzibar are examples of Cuban influence in Africa supporting domestic and anti-colonial insurgencies. Cuban intervention in Ethiopia, on the other hand, is an indicator of Cuban expansionism as a…

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Congo Crisis
Confidential

The Congo Crisis and Foreign Intervention

The Congo crisis affected the current territories of the Democratic Republic of Congo from the 5th of July 1960 to the 25th of November 1965. Key Judgments KJ-1.    The US and the CIA intervention were the results of a possible…

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Confidential

Krystyna Skarbek: Churchill’s Favourite Spy

Krystyna Skarbek is one of the most famous World War II heroines and Britain’s first and longest-serving female spy at the time. Her impact and determination in fighting against Nazi-occupied Europe made her SOE’s most successful operative and Winston Churchill’s…

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Confidential

The Rise of Chinese Military Contractors in Africa

This Grey Dynamics African intelligence article analyses the rise of Chinese military contractors in Africa, providing a context for their utilisation and analysing their activities. Key Findings With over 200,000 Chinese workers, 10,000 Chinese companies, and the rollout of Belt…

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