Confidential

Cuba´s Expansionism in the Horn of Africa

Cuba’s expansionism: motivations in Ethiopia Cuba´s expansionism in Algeria, Guinea-Bissau or Zanzibar are examples of Cuban influence in Africa supporting domestic and anti-colonial insurgencies. Cuban intervention in Ethiopia, on the other hand, is an indicator of Cuban expansionism as a…

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Confidential

Cuba and the Zanzibar Revolution: Revolutionary Vulnerabilities

Why is Cuba Relevant in Zanzibar? Between 1961 and 1964, Zanzibar underwent a series of political changes including the exit of British forces and a revolution. In April 1964,  Zanzibar and Tanganyika united to form Tanzania after a short revolution…

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Confidential

Cuba and the Opportunity to re-gain Influence in Africa

Cuba, Castro and the Portuguese Guinea Cuba highly likely achieved a necessary success in its pursue of armed revolutions. Portugal and its colony, Portuguese Guinea, engaged in a war between 1966 and 1973. The African Party for PAIGC confronted, with…

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Congo Crisis
Confidential

The Congo Crisis and Foreign Intervention

The Congo crisis affected the current territories of the Democratic Republic of Congo from the 5th of July 1960 to the 25th of November 1965. Key Judgments KJ-1.    The US and the CIA intervention were the results of a possible…

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Confidential

Angolan Civil War and the Intelligence POV

Angolan Civil War: Background The Angolan Civil War began in 1975 and continued until 2002. Immediately after becoming independent from Portugal in November 1975. The war was a power struggle between two anti-colonial guerrilla movements. On the one hand the…

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Umkhonto we Sizwe
Confidential

Umkhonto we Sizwe: The Armed Struggle of ANC in South Africa

Spear of the Nation Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) was created on the 16th of December 1961, as the armed wing of the African National Congress (ANC).  In the light of the African nationalism and the anti-apartheid movement, Nelson Mandela founded the…

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Confidential

DP World: Emirati Expansionism in Africa?

Key Judgement The expansion of DP World supports UAE ambitions of controlling maritime commerce across a vast network. This links the Americas, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Military expansion near the Gulf is to secure these interests, as…

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Confidential

The Montoneros: Hybrid Political-Guerrilla Terrorist Organisation

The Montoneros was a hybrid political-terrorist organisation that operated in the 1970s and 1980s in Argentina. With ideology as a driver, hierarchical structure with overt and covert capabilities suffered from a logistical change to a clandestine nature. Why does this…

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Conflict in Tigray
Confidential

Predictive Analysis of Conflict in Tigray, Ethiopia

Key Judgements KJ-1. Armed conflict will highly likely continue and de-centralise in the following 6 weeks. Ethnic-driven civilian militias and the large unregistered amount of firearms make it highly likely that armed confrontations involving Tigrayan ethnicities will occur. KJ-2. Conflict…

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Confidential

ETA: Spanish Separate Terrorism links with Venezuela

The association of Nicolas Maduro and the Venezuelan government to drug trafficking and terrorism sponsorship is not new. Spanish terrorist organisation ETA enjoyed links between South American and European criminal and armed actors with the cooperation of the Venezuelan government….

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