Confidential

Sanctions and a Military Coup in Venezuela?

Military Coup in Venezuela

Venezuela in turmoil

The confrontation on multiple fronts is ramping up in Venezuela with a peaceful solution more in doubt. There was an indication last week from National Security Advisor John Bolton that the US was considering support for sanctions and a military coup in Colombia. For now, Maduro remains firmly in power with support from the military. Opposition protests to the Maduro government are becoming more frequent after Juan Guaidó, declared the legitimate president of the country.

He also has received official support from the US, Canada, and most of the EU. However, it is becoming more apparent that the US strategy with Venezuela is not overt US military action. Although President Trump continues to reiterate that all options are on the table.

Will the Military support a coup?

The US economic squeeze on Venezuela, is intended to trigger mass defection or defection of key military leaders. On Jan 23, air force Gen. Francisco Yanez was the first high-ranking general to defect. Guaidó has called on more members of the military to abandon the country’s armed forces. He also has accused the military of planning to divert international humanitarian aid headed for Venezuela. President Maduro responded by proposing to hold early National Assembly elections. This move could remove Guaidó and reiterated to potentially mobilize the self-proclaimed 1.6 million-strong civilian militia.

The World is split on Guaidó

There have been calls by some in the international community to address rising tensions peacefully and questioned the legitimacy of Guaidó.  Italy blocked a European Union statement recognizing Guaidó, and Ireland and Greece have called for new elections but have not recognized Guaidó. The members of the Lima Group met in Canada recently and issued a declaration of support for Guaidó, but it does not support the use of force to remove Maduro’s government. Three members of the Lima Group—Guyana, Mexico and St. Lucia—did not support the declaration.

The Group is a multilateral body that was established following the Lima Declaration in 2017, where representatives of 12 countries met to establish a peaceful solution to the crisis in Venezuela. Mexico, along with Uruguay, also offered to mediate negotiations between the Maduro government and the opposition, but this was dismissed by Guaidó, most likely under the direction of the US. The most outspoken supporters of the Maduro government have been Turkey, China, Iran and most notably, Russia. These countries vehemently oppose Sanctions and a Military Coup against their ally Maduro.

So what now?

All indications are that the crisis in Venezuela will get a whole lot worse before better. It seems by the design of the small, but growing opposition in the country, and by their powerful international allies. The question is whether the conflict transforms from an economic and political to an armed one. Ultimately, it may be a matter of the stakes the military has in Maduro staying in power or if popular opinion turns against Maduro. It is clear that the economy already decimated will not be able to bear much more stress and the people even less, but a civil war between various armed factions will not be resolved in short order.

Image: Juan Barreto / Getty Image / New York Magazine Intelligencer (link)

Author

Dylan Ramshaw

Dylan Ramshaw is a freelance consultant with over 15 years working and living in Latin America and Africa. He is a trained economist and recently completed a post graduate certificate in intelligence analysis at Brunel University London.

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