Venezuela in turmoil
The confrontation on multiple fronts is ramping up in Venezuela, with a peaceful solution more in doubt. Last week, National Security Advisor John Bolton indicated that the US was considering supporting sanctions and a military coup in Colombia. For now, Maduro remains firmly in power with the military’s backing. Opposition protests against the Maduro government became more frequent after Juan Guaidó was declared the country’s legitimate president.
He also has received official support from the US, Canada, and most of the EU. However, it is becoming more apparent that the US strategy with Venezuela is not overt US military action. However, President Trump continues reiterating that all options are on the table.
Sanctions and a Military Coup: Will the Military Support?
The US economic squeeze on Venezuela is intended to trigger mass defections or defections of key military leaders. On Jan 23, Air Force Gen. Francisco Yanez was the first high-ranking general to defect. Guaidó has called on more military members to abandon the country’s armed forces and accused the military of planning to divert international humanitarian aid headed for Venezuela. President Maduro responded by proposing to hold early National Assembly elections. This move could potentially remove Guaidó and reiterate the mobilisation of the self-proclaimed 1.6 million-strong civilian militia.
The World is split on Guaidó.
Some in the international community have called to address rising tensions peacefully and have questioned the legitimacy of Guaidó. Italy blocked a European Union statement recognizing Guaidó, and Ireland and Greece have called for new elections but have not recognized Guaidó. The members of the Lima Group met in Canada recently and issued a declaration of support for Guaidó, but it does not support the use of force to remove Maduro’s government. Three members of the Lima Group—Guyana, Mexico and St. Lucia—did not support the declaration.
The Group is a multilateral body established following the Lima Declaration in 2017, where representatives of 12 countries met to establish a peaceful solution to the crisis in Venezuela. Mexico and Uruguay also offered to mediate negotiations between the Maduro government and the opposition, but this was dismissed by Guaidó, most likely under the direction of the US. The most outspoken supporters of the Maduro government have been Turkey, China, Iran and, most notably, Russia. These countries vehemently oppose Sanctions and a Military Coup against their ally Maduro.
So what now?
All indications are that the Venezuela crisis will worsen before it gets better. It seems by the design of the small but growing opposition in the country and by their powerful international allies. The question is whether the conflict transforms from economic and political to armed. It may be a matter of the military’s stakes in Maduro staying in power. The already decimated economy will not be able to bear much more stress. The people even less. However, a civil war between various armed factions will not be resolved quickly.
