grey dynamics

Human Trafficking Supply-chains

February 8, 2021

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

    The coronavirus has not been a significant deterrent for human trafficking supply-chains. Conflicts, terrorism and lack of opportunities present a vacuum for criminal organisations to exploit, while law-enforcement counter-measures remain fragile.         Why Does This Matter?     Refugee and immigration flow at the height of the Syrian conflict reached the media and social spotlight. In 2020, with terrorist-related conflicts across the Sahel and the arrival of the pandemic, immigration and refugee flows continue to…

CJNG Cartel Terror on Both Sides of the Border

January 21, 2021

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

  This Grey Dynamics article examines different aspects of the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), ranging from the ways they function in the US, as well as the issues they face within Mexico and within their ranks.     Key Judgements     KJ-1. The CJNG is highly likely insured against raids, arrests, or law-enforcement efforts. Indicators of corruption within the Mexican government likely suggest that the CJNG at the minimum enjoys a sphere of protection. The nature of…

Narco-submarines, Cartels, Drug-trafficking and Corruption

January 15, 2021

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

      Why Does This Matter?     Methods like tunnels, narco-planes, or mules have been employed by Drug Trafficking Organisations (DTO) and Cartels since the 1980s. The rise in the use of ‘narco-submarines’ since 1993 has been followed by a rise in narco-submarine seizures by law enforcement.  With increasing efforts from law-enforcement to detect drug-trafficking flows, cartels have adapted their transportation methodology while maintaining elements of corruption and extortion:   It is almost certain that submersible and semi-submersible…

Narco links between South America and Africa

January 4, 2021

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

  Why does this matter?   Criminal organisations and ‘Cartels’ dedicated to drug trafficking in South America enjoy a significant presence across Africa apart from traditional markets like the United States. An informal business model has been established between South American Transnational Criminal Organisations (TCO) and recipients in Africa. This increases the frequency of drug trafficking to Europe and the U.S. as well as the long-term presence of narcotics within communities in Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau, Mali or Mozambique.   A decentralised…

Transit Hub: What Becomes of Angola’s Drug Business

November 30, 2020

Eren Ersozoglu

Key Judgements   KJ-1. Angola's fight against drug abuse and trafficking is inefficient   KJ-2. There is a realistic probability that the drug business receives support from people within the Angolan government.   KJ-3. There is a realistic probability that Angolan authorities will explore cooperation with relevant countries in South America, Europe, and West Africa in the fight against the drug business   KJ-4. Angola may become more difficult to run as a drug transit hub. However, it would remain…

The Passive Transatlantic Criminal Network?

November 18, 2020

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

  Why Does This Matter?   Although official reports of cooperation with Mexican cartels date to 2012, Italian mafias continue to have a significant presence in South America.   It is almost certain that the ‘Ndrangheta developed a network in South and Central America to ensure the distribution of narcotics. The group is responsible for 80% of cocaine imports in Europe. History with the Gulf Cartel, Zetas Cartel and the PCC makes it likely that Mexican organised crime groups actively…