grey dynamics

Mali: A Terrorists’ Gold Mine

February 28, 2020

Ana-Maria Baloi

    Why does this matter?:   Gold production is the cornerstone of Mali's mining sector and accounts for 95% of the country's mining output    Mali is the fourth-largest producer of gold in Africa. Many reserves are yet to be exploited. However, the economy is stalled due to a lack of infrastructure   The new mining code will strongly impact both local and foreign investors in the region   High-security risks pose a threat to potential and current investors…

Mozambique Insurgency Threat

February 10, 2020

Eren Ersozoglu

      Key Judgements   KJ-1. Government has likely exacerbated the situation with a media blackout, not addressing human rights violations and northern province discontent among the population.   KJ-2. Precedent government attempts to counter insurgency are currently not effective.         Analysis   This Grey Dynamics Africa Intelligence Report seeks to offer an assessment of the insurgency in Mozambique. For collection and processing OSINT sources have been used, the report is safe for further distribution.  …

Terror Threat in Tunisia: A Lesser Issue

February 3, 2020

Louis Tayler

    Key Judgements   KJ-1. The Counter-Terror (CT) efforts in Tunisia are well funded, successful, and are likely to continue to be so.    KJ-2. The new President’s vow to combat corruption and give young people opportunity, as well as his Political Islamist beliefs will eat away at already weak extremist support in Tunisia.   KJ-3. The greater weight of public opinion in Tunisia is against acts of terror, a major factor in ensuring continued stability in Tunisia.     Analysis  …

Nigeria: The Jihadist Threat

January 31, 2020

Ana-Maria Baloi

    Key Judgements   KJ-1. After ISGS’s expansion in Burkina Faso, states in West Africa fear the group might try to extend further, reaching the coast of Gulf of Guinea. The jihadists already have the freedom of movement in the Sahel region, where they coordinate networks and orchestrate numerous attacks.   KJ-2. Nigeria will seek to enhance its military cooperation with ECOWAS member states. In contrast, the country is expected to harden its economic and security policies, by limiting foreign access…

The Contribution of Youth to Peace-building in Chad

January 18, 2020

Jesutimilehin Akamo

      The intention of this article is to highlight why the roles of youth in peacebuilding in Chad is important within the context of combating violent extremism (VE). These roles do require an appropriate corresponding response to create a conducive atmosphere for the success of combating VE.     Reconstructed Scenario is based on the following judgments:    The Youth plays a critical role in preventing and limiting the impacts of VE   Technical and non-technical support and…

Current Al-Shabaab Threat to Ethiopia

January 17, 2020

Eren Ersozoglu

      Key Judgements   KJ-1. It is highly likely Al-Shabaab will continue to be a threat to Ethiopia, however their capabilities are reduced and the AMISOM has been productive in containing threat, they have failed to mount a large-scale attack on Ethiopia.    KJ-2. Tensions with FSG threatens AMISOM, failure to successfully combat Al-Shabaab in Somalia is highly likely to provide operational base for Ethiopia to be targeted.   KJ-3. Political and ethnic violence provides unstable climate, Al-Shabaab…