grey dynamics

Boko Haram: Defeat or Stalemate?

December 6, 2020

Ana-Maria Baloi

  Why does this matter   KJ-1. The violent rise and resilience of the jihadist group Boko Haram in the Lake Chad basin since 2009 present security, humanitarian, and governance challenges.   KJ-2. The insurgency is now spread across Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria, meaning that Boko Haram is a transnational terrorist organisation with the capacity to operate in multiple countries across the Sahel.   KJ-3. Recent events indicate that Boko Haram is weakened in Chad. However, the insurgency is…

Mercenaries: The Omega Consulting Group

December 2, 2020

Michael Ellmer

  Eurasian Private Military Contractors   Private military contractors (PMC) from Eurasia are no stranger to recent coverage. An abundance of it at that, although the majority being focused on the Wagner Group – a PMC organization based in Russia who carry an infamous reputation for essentially acting as a proxy force for the Russian government. Wagner has been involved with the Syrian and Libyan civil wars, as well as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Under the media coverage shadow of…

Al-Shabaab In the Age Of COVID-19

December 2, 2020

Eren Ersozoglu

      Breakdown   KJ-1. 16th March, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) confirmed the first case of COVID-19   KJ-2. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for a global ceasefire. Al-Shabaab (AS) leader Abu Ubeida announced the suspension of activities following the pandemic outbreak   KJ-3. Despite the announcement, the group continues attacks on government and AMISOM assets in their area of operations   There is a significant risk that AS can regroup and re-surge amid the outbreak, as…

Super-Empowered Individuals: Interview with Calibre Obscura

December 1, 2020

Ahmed Hassan

      Much of my research and fascination is driven by the rise of the “citizen journalist”, “Homo Digitalis” or the “super-empowered individual”. These are individuals or groups who have maximised their impact in the domains of warfare, journalism, intelligence, and statecraft, by leveraging the democratisation of technology and its disruptive effects.   While, most of these technologies and tactics used to be only available to states. Today, however, it is possible for protestors in Hong Kong to communicate…

Anti-Tank Guided Missiles & Terrorist Groups

November 26, 2020

Michael Ellmer

  ATGM Breakdown   Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) is a classification of military hardware that has had a variety of models developed and used on the battlefield since the 1970s. Hughes Aircraft was the first company to get a production contract issued, but since 1997, the manufacturing of ATGM’s has been spearheaded by the United States (US) based conglomerate Raytheon Technologies Corporation.   Raytheon currently manufactures the BGM-71 Tube-launched, Optically-tracked, Wire-guided heavy anti-tank missile (known as a TOW system). Although…

Russian Paramilitary Presence in Venezuela?

November 16, 2020

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

  Why Does This Matter?   Russia has attracted attention for its increased involvement in Venezuela, particularly following the US sanctions in March 2020. The Russian-Venezuelan relationship was initially ‘purely administrative’. Since 2018, reports of Russian military personnel -allegedly including Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner- directly cooperating with Venezuelan forces have emerged:   The degree of presence of Russian military assets in Venezuela is highly likely correlated with the geopolitical investment of the Kremlin. Profit off mineral and oil investments…