grey dynamics

Sara Khitta: Taliban Special Forces

January 6, 2021

Michael Ellmer

  This Grey Dynamics article gives an overview of the Taliban’s Sara Khitta unit – a self-proclaimed “special forces unit” that has demonstrated unique tactics and more advanced weaponry on the Afghanistan battlefield than their rank-in-file counterparts.     Key Judgements KJ-1. It is likely Sara Khitta will be used as the Taliban’s premier future fighting force against the Afghan national security forces. KJ-2. Sara Khitta is not a traditional “special forces” unit, and it is highly unlikely they will…

Barrack Busters: How the IRA influenced terrorists around the world

January 5, 2021

Jeremy Walker

  The Provisional IRA’s 29-year campaign, from 1969 until the Good Friday Agreements in 1998, saw the evolution of several tactics and technologies. It was developing world-leading knowledge in the use of Mortars in urban environments as well as the development of bomb trigger mechanisms.     Key Judgements   KJ–1. The Provisional IRAs development of the mortar directly influenced the type of operations that it was able to conduct. Use of the ‘Barrack Buster’ and others within the same technological…

ETA: Spanish Separate Terrorism links with Venezuela

December 30, 2020

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

  The association of Nicolas Maduro and the Venezuelan government to drug trafficking and terrorism sponsorship is not new. Spanish terrorist organisation ETA enjoyed links between South American and European criminal and armed actors with the cooperation of the Venezuelan government.     Why Does This Matter?   The association between armed actors in South America and the Venezuelan government stretches back to the presidency of Hugo Chavez. Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA), the now defunded separatist terrorist organisation from northern…

Terrorism Outlook: United States

December 28, 2020

Michael Ellmer

  Key Judgements   KJ-1. Based on the current statistical trends, it is likely that future terrorist attacks in the US will primarily utilize explosives, firearms, and incendiary devices.   KJ-2. It is highly likely that US and international terrorist groups who target the US will utilize social media and other internet capabilities in order to recruit and plan attacks.   KJ-3. It is likely that the primary targets and victims of future terrorist attacks will be members of specific…

Terrorism Outlook: Europe

December 21, 2020

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

  Key Judgements   KJ-1. It is almost certain that attacks have adapted their nature in the last 10 years decreasing in mortality but increasing in its aim on soft targets. The overall feeling of security is highly likely decreasing. This will likely undermine trust in law-enforcement and responsible governmental bodies.   KJ-2. It is highly likely that radical jihadists will carry out an attack on European soil in the following 12 months. The polarised political environment and steady increase…

European Far-right Radicalised Networks

December 7, 2020

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

Key Judgements   There is no fixed organisation leading a movement capable of joining far-right radicalised networks across different European countries. Despite the abstract nature of the threat, far-right extremism has the potential to grow into a capable threat.   KJ-1. It is highly unlikely that any large far-right armed terrorist group will emerge in Europe in the following 6 months. There is an increase in activity and established organisations, yet the lack of a centralised idea and an increase…