Non-State Actors

Live Tactical Analysis : Somalia, 28th Oct., 2017

October 28, 2017

Seju Kim

Update Status: Closed

 

Analytic Judgement

 

* Almost certain that Al Shabab is responsible (1502, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Likely that Al Shabab assessed the bystanders near blast site before attack (1610, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Realistic possibility that  Al Shabab informants reside near blast site (1613, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Realistic possibility of Al Shabab info collection operations (1613, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Highly likely that truck used for first VBIED (1648, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Unlikely that Al Shabab active shooters wear uniform of Nasablod 2 Hotel security staff (1659, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Likely that Al Shabab active shooters used at least three vehicle including VBIED (1711, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Realistic possibility of a change from bomb attacks to hostage situation (1713, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Likely that Second VBIED targeted National Intelligence and Security Agency (1751, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Unlikely that driver of first VBIED was neutralised (1757, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Realistic possibility that Al Shabab conducted info collection operations maximum 216 hours to minimum 18 hours (1800, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Highly likely that Al Shabab active shooters equipped with small arms without explosive weapons (1801, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Almost certain that Al Shabab militants in hotel equipped with small arms and explosive devices (1820, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Unlikely that Al Shabab militants in the hotel were equipped with grenades (1822, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Realistic possibility that total number of Al Shabab militants in hotel is maximum 7 to minimum 3 (1822, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Likely that a heavy truck was used for first VBIED (1833, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Highly likely that the Al Shabab militants in hotel are comparably well trained and equipped than the militants of Jun 2016 Ambassador Hotel Attack. (1848, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Unlikely that all of the Al Shabab militants in hotel are wearing suicide bomb vest (1902, 28th Oct., 2017)

 

 

 

Timeline

 

– 1404, 28th Oct., 2017 

First Blast: Nasa Hablod 2 Hotel, Mogadishu, Somalia

Video shot by our COO Ahmed Hassan

 

– 1459, 28th Oct., 2017

Second Blast: Southern checkpoint near ‘Unknown Soldier’s Monument’

Video shot by our COO Ahmed Hassan

– 1620, 28th Oct., 2017

Al Shabab claims responsibility on the attacks

 

– 1718, 28th Oct., 2017

At least 20 people are trapped in hotel

 

– 1749, 28th Oct., 2017

More than 15 people killed, including government officials

 

– 1756, 28th Oct., 2017

Truck that was used in first attack parked  hours earlier, pretended to be broken down near hotel

 

– 1801, 28th Oct., 2017

Two Al Shabab Terrorist EKIA

 

– 1801, 28th Oct., 2017

Attackers used minibus with explosives for second VBIED 

 

– 1814, 28th Oct., 2017

At least 3 Al Shabab militants are in the hotel

 

– 1820, 28th Oct., 2017

At least 13 killed, 16 wounded

 

– 1826, 28th Oct., 2017

Current member of the national army fund trustees, Abdinasir Garane killed in 1st VBIED

 

– 1832, 28th Oct., 2017

Photo of destroyed first VBIED vehicle was released on social media 

 

– 1845, 28th Oct., 2017

On 6th June, 2016, Al Shabab conduct similar attacks in Ambassador Hotel, Mogadishu, Somalia

 

– 2103, 28th Oct., 2017

At the moment the guest have barricaded themselves on the upper floors while AS militants are controlling the bottom floors

 

– 2200, 28th Oct., 2017

There is still heavy gunfire and grenade explosions being heard, coming from inside of the hotel

 

– 2108, 28th oct., 2017

Firefight still continuing in first VBIED site

 

– 2114, 28th Oct., 2017

Casualty toll rises to at least 19 killed, 40 wounded

 

– 2136, 28th Oct., 2017

Casualty toll rises to at least 23 killed, 30 wounded 

 

– 2345, 28th Oct., 2017

One more explosion observed in hotel

 

– 0429, 29th Oct., 2017

Official end of hotel seige 

 

– 0443, 29th Oct., 2017

One Al Shabab militant captured, source unconfirmed

 

– 0702, 29th Oct., 2017

Photo of first VBIED site

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Photo of second VBIED site

 

 

 

 

– 0841, 29th Oct., 2017

Live Tactical Analysis ends

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