Confidential

Live Tactical Analysis

Update Status: Closed

Analytic Judgement

* Almost certain that Al Shabab is responsible (1502, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Likely that Al Shabab assessed the bystanders near blast site before attack (1610, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Realistic possibility that  Al Shabab informants reside near blast site (1613, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Realistic possibility of Al Shabab info collection operations (1613, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Highly likely that truck used for first VBIED (1648, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Unlikely that Al Shabab active shooters wear uniform of Nasablod 2 Hotel security staff (1659, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Likely that Al Shabab active shooters used at least three vehicle including VBIED (1711, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Realistic possibility of a change from bomb attacks to hostage situation (1713, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Likely that Second VBIED targeted National Intelligence and Security Agency (1751, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Unlikely that driver of first VBIED was neutralised (1757, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Realistic possibility that Al Shabab conducted info collection operations maximum 216 hours to minimum 18 hours (1800, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Highly likely that Al Shabab active shooters equipped with small arms without explosive weapons (1801, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Almost certain that Al Shabab militants in hotel equipped with small arms and explosive devices (1820, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Unlikely that Al Shabab militants in the hotel were equipped with grenades (1822, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Realistic possibility that total number of Al Shabab militants in hotel is maximum 7 to minimum 3 (1822, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Likely that a heavy truck was used for first VBIED (1833, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Highly likely that the Al Shabab militants in hotel are comparably well trained and equipped than the militants of Jun 2016 Ambassador Hotel Attack. (1848, 28th Oct., 2017)

* Unlikely that all of the Al Shabab militants in hotel are wearing suicide bomb vest (1902, 28th Oct., 2017)

Timeline

– 1404, 28th Oct., 2017 

First Blast: Nasa Hablod 2 Hotel, Mogadishu, Somalia

Video shot by our COO Ahmed Hassan

– 1459, 28th Oct., 2017

Second Blast: Southern checkpoint near ‘Unknown Soldier’s Monument’

Video shot by our COO Ahmed Hassan

– 1620, 28th Oct., 2017

Al Shabab claims responsibility on the attacks

– 1718, 28th Oct., 2017

At least 20 people are trapped in hotel

– 1749, 28th Oct., 2017

More than 15 people killed, including government officials

– 1756, 28th Oct., 2017

Truck that was used in first attack parked  hours earlier, pretended to be broken down near hotel

– 1801, 28th Oct., 2017

Two Al Shabab Terrorist EKIA

– 1801, 28th Oct., 2017

Attackers used minibus with explosives for second VBIED 

– 1814, 28th Oct., 2017

At least 3 Al Shabab militants are in the hotel

– 1820, 28th Oct., 2017

At least 13 killed, 16 wounded

– 1826, 28th Oct., 2017

Current member of the national army fund trustees, Abdinasir Garane killed in 1st VBIED

– 1832, 28th Oct., 2017

Photo of destroyed first VBIED vehicle was released on social media 

– 1845, 28th Oct., 2017

On 6th June, 2016, Al Shabab conduct similar attacks in Ambassador Hotel, Mogadishu, Somalia

– 2103, 28th Oct., 2017

At the moment the guest have barricaded themselves on the upper floors while AS militants are controlling the bottom floors

– 2200, 28th Oct., 2017

There is still heavy gunfire and grenade explosions being heard, coming from inside of the hotel

– 2108, 28th oct., 2017

Firefight still continuing in first VBIED site

– 2114, 28th Oct., 2017

Casualty toll rises to at least 19 killed, 40 wounded

– 2136, 28th Oct., 2017

Casualty toll rises to at least 23 killed, 30 wounded 

– 2345, 28th Oct., 2017

One more explosion observed in hotel

– 0429, 29th Oct., 2017

Official end of hotel seige 

– 0443, 29th Oct., 2017

One Al Shabab militant captured, source unconfirmed

– 0702, 29th Oct., 2017

Photo of first VBIED site

Photo of second VBIED site

– 0841, 29th Oct., 2017

Live Tactical Analysis ends

Author

Seju Kim

COO of Grey Dynamics. He combined his experience from the intelligence sector and technological understanding to create truly innovative intelligence solutions.

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