Defence
Predictive Analysis of Conflict in Tigray, Ethiopia
January 25, 2021
Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo
Key Judgements KJ-1. Armed conflict will highly likely continue and de-centralise in the following 6 weeks. Ethnic-driven civilian militias and the large unregistered amount of firearms make it highly likely that armed confrontations involving Tigrayan ethnicities will occur. KJ-2. Conflict is likely to spread beyond Tigray’s borders into further Ethiopian and Eritrean territory. Ethnic and historic divisions broaden the range of actors involved in the conflict. This, together with increasingly individual confrontations, make it likely…