Confidential
Confidential
Intelligence Failure
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Confidential

Wilayat Sinai Attack on Gas Pipeline in the Sinai Peninsula

In February 2020, armed gunmen allegedly with the Islamic State affiliate in Sinai, Wilayat Sinai, attacked a gas pipeline in Sinai, 80km outside the regional capital of El-Arish. Though the terrorists claim that the pipeline was connected to Israel, the…

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Confidential

‘The Game Has Changed’: Iranian Terror Network in Africa

On January 2nd, U.S. Defence Secretary Mark T. Esper, following the U.S. airstrike assassination of Gen. Qaseem Soleimani, stated: “the game has changed”. This is true as the airstrike marked a shift in a proxy war between Washington and Iran…

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Confidential

Mali: A Terrorists’ Gold Mine

Overview Gold mining is Mali’s main industrial activity and it is the fourth-largest producer of gold in Africa. In addition to gold, Mali also exports diamonds, bauxite, iron ore, base metals, and phosphate. Although the country used to occupy the…

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Confidential

Mozambique Insurgency Threat

This Grey Dynamics Africa Intelligence Report seeks to offer an assessment of the insurgency threat in Mozambique. For collection and processing OSINT sources have been used, the report is safe for further distribution. Key Judgements KJ-1. Government has likely exacerbated…

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Confidential

Terror Threat in Tunisia: A Lesser Issue

Analysis Tunisia is a country in which much has changed since the Arab Spring. It is the only Arab country in which democracy can be seen to be a reasonable success, with peaceful transitions of power between governments having been…

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Confidential

Nigeria Terror Threat

In Nigeria, ethnic conflicts take place on wide swaths of land, facilitating the establishment of terror cells. The Nigerian army favours some the ethnic groups, causing distress and frustration among the discriminated populations. Deadly attacks in Niger and Mali shocked…

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Confidential

Current Al-Shabaab Threat to Ethiopia

Key Judgements KJ-1. It is highly likely Al-Shabaab will continue to be a threat to Ethiopia, however their capabilities are reduced and the AMISOM has been productive in containing threat, they have failed to mount a large-scale attack on Ethiopia. …

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Confidential

Effective Algerian Security: Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in Decline

Key Judgements KJ-1. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQ-IM) is weak in Algeria, and its leadership is degraded by effective security forces and cross-border cooperation between Tunisia and Algeria.   KJ-2. AQ-IM may be aided by changing security concerns,…

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Confidential

Peace & Warlords in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

This article attempts to diagnose initiatives that can bring belligerent warlords to agreement. The situation in DRC is complex and ethnic-based and the warlords are rational and have a common desire which can be leveraged. Reconstructed Scenario is based on…

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Confidential

Recent Developments in Mali’s Struggle Against Terrorism

In late October, ISIS supreme leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi was killed in a US raid in North-Western Syria. However, ISIL disposes of a horizontal structure, meaning the elimination of the leader does not bring substantial damage to the group…

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