Confidential
Confidential
Intelligence Failure
Confidential
Confidential

Terrorism Outlook: Europe

Background The Madrid and London attacks in 2004 and 2005 respectively presented a novel threat within the European community. Attacks between 2010-2020 switched and largely targeted countries like France, Germany and the United Kingdom. Right-wing attacks and arrests like the…

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Confidential

European Far-right Radicalised Networks

Key Judgements There is no fixed organisation leading a movement capable of joining European far-right radicalised networks across different countries. Despite the abstract nature of the threat, far-right extremism has the potential to grow into a capable threat. KJ-1. It…

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Confidential

Anti-Tank Guided Missiles & Terrorist Groups

ATGM Breakdown Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) is a classification of military hardware that has had a variety of models developed and used on the battlefield since the 1970s. Hughes Aircraft was the first company to get a production contract issued,…

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Confidential

Blood Cocoa: How the Cocoa Industry May Indirectly Fund Hezbollah

Whenever and wherever there is an important strategic resource in Africa, that resource has nearly always been exploited to the detriment of those expected to extract it. That has been the case for gold, diamonds, rubber, oil, and it is…

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Confidential

Mauritania’s Successful Fight Against Terrorism?

Mauritania‘s Successful Fight Against Terrorism is hailed in the region and in Western capitals. However, its poor human rights record and treatment of journalists doesn’t receive similar attention. Key Judgements KJ-1. The West Sahel region is engulfed in radicalism-driven violence….

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Confidential

Boko Haram: Defeat or Stalemate?

Boko Haram began to emerge in 2003 when several extremist Islamists initiated a youth movement in north-east Nigeria (Yobe State). The leading preacher, Mohammed Yusuf, had a strict, fundamentalist interpretation of the Qur’an and believed that the creation of Nigeria…

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Confidential

Al-Shabaab In the Age Of COVID-19

Breakdown There is a significant risk that Al-Shabaab can regroup and re-surge amid the COVID-19 outbreak, as government forces and assets are redirected to tackle the pandemic. A withdrawal of foreign military aid in the form of AMISOM and AFRICOM…

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Confidential

“Jihadi Drug”: Captagon Proliferation

Captagon Background Fenetylline, which was marketed as Captagon or the ‘Jihadi Drug’ during the 1960s and 1970s, was initially used to treat ADHD, depression and narcolepsy. In 1986 it was included in Schedule II of the UN Convention on Psychotropic…

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Confidential

Boko Haram’s Deadliest Attack Hits Chad

Why Does This Matter The terrorist threat is growing in the Sahel. The number of attacks has doubled in 2019, with millions displaced. The latest attack conducted by Boko Haram on a military compound in Chad is their biggest one…

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Confidential

Mayhem in Mozambique: ISIS Resurgence

There were rumours of ISIS Central Africa (ISCAP) operating in the region and the group has claimed the attack in Mozambique, Mocimboa Da Praia and shows affiliation or opportunism. This is an intelligence and military failure by Mozambique and the…

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