Confidential
Confidential
Intelligence Failure
Confidential
Confidential

Is Africa the next frontier for IS?

In recent months the African continent has witnessed the strengthening of the Jihadi Salafist movement. Multiple attacks have been conducted by the IS and its affiliates across several regions in Africa. The Salafi-jihadi movement currently has four main centers of…

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Confidential

Super-Empowered Individuals: Interview with Calibre Obscura

Much of my research and fascination is driven by the rise of the “citizen journalist”, “Homo Digitalis” or the “super-empowered individual”. These are individuals or groups who have maximised their impact in the domains of warfare, journalism, intelligence, and statecraft,…

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Confidential

The Ghost Gun: An interview with ‘Ivan the Troll’

Ever since Cody Wilson and his company Defense Distributed made a splash on the headlines with a 3D printed gun — christened the Liberator — most media outlets have been on a frenzy when it comes to 3D printed guns….

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Confidential

ISGS showing captured US weapons in propaganda videos

In a video, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), the group responsible for the ambush of the Green Berets on October 4th 2017, displays US made weapons. The video is titled Punishments of Traitors and features brutal executions, accompanied by…

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The After Action Report

  In the after action report I revisit and analyse intelligence and security news from the previous week.   The increase of public private partnership in the intelligence domain was once again underscored, by an announcement about the United States…

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Confidential

Hotel Wehliye Attack

Hotel Wehliye Attack: On 22 March 2018, 16:35 hours local time, Maka-Al Mukarama Road, opposite of Hotel Wehliye, Howlwadaag District, #Mogadishu #VBIED Explosion: A small vehicle loaded with explosives parked across the street from Hotel Wehliye, Howlwadaag District was detonated, using…

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Confidential

Live Tactical Analysis

Update Status: Closed Analytic Judgement * Almost certain that Al Shabab is responsible (1502, 28th Oct., 2017) * Likely that Al Shabab assessed the bystanders near blast site before attack (1610, 28th Oct., 2017) * Realistic possibility that  Al Shabab informants reside near blast site (1613, 28th Oct., 2017) * Realistic possibility of…

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Grey Dynamics in Mogadishu and the Future of Asymmetric Conflict

A man walks past the wreckage of a building at the site of a VBIED attack undertaken by the militant group al Shabaab in the Somali capital of Mogadishu on October 15, 2017. AMISOM Photo / Tobin Jones   On…

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