Confidential
Confidential
Intelligence Failure
Confidential
Confidential

North Korean Small Arms Proliferation and Identification

This report seeks to offer an assessment of North Korean small arms proliferation and identification, with a focus on Africa. Key Judgements North Korea can export its large stockpile of historic small arms, which are indistinguishable from North Korean small…

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Turkish Defence
Confidential

Turkey’s Military Influence: Neo-Ottoman Expansion?

In recent years, Turkish defence and defence-industrial capacity has expanded in a significant manner. Hawks warn for Neo-ottoman expansion. A quick look at the SSB (the Presidency of Defence Industries) catalogue of available defence products show a wide range of…

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Confidential

Mozambique Insurgency Threat

This Grey Dynamics Africa Intelligence Report seeks to offer an assessment of the insurgency threat in Mozambique. For collection and processing OSINT sources have been used, the report is safe for further distribution. Key Judgements KJ-1. Government has likely exacerbated…

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Confidential

Nigeria Terror Threat

In Nigeria, ethnic conflicts take place on wide swaths of land, facilitating the establishment of terror cells. The Nigerian army favours some the ethnic groups, causing distress and frustration among the discriminated populations. Deadly attacks in Niger and Mali shocked…

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Confidential

Exploring Turkish Strategy in East Africa

The “Africa Action Plan”, initiated Turkey’s intention to revive Turkey’s relations with Africa in 1998. A combination of the Istanbul Earthquake 1999, the economic crisis in 2000-2001, and failure to implement operational rather than theoretical and symbolic steps hindered any…

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Confidential

Current Al-Shabaab Threat to Ethiopia

Key Judgements KJ-1. It is highly likely Al-Shabaab will continue to be a threat to Ethiopia, however their capabilities are reduced and the AMISOM has been productive in containing threat, they have failed to mount a large-scale attack on Ethiopia. …

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Confidential

Tunisia: A Safe Country?

Tunisia, arguably, is a relatively safe country, in the major population centres and areas away from the borders with Algeria and Libya. A comparison with France, a modern, Western country considered safe by many for visits and business provides some…

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Confidential

Effective Algerian Security: Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in Decline

Key Judgements KJ-1. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQ-IM) is weak in Algeria, and its leadership is degraded by effective security forces and cross-border cooperation between Tunisia and Algeria.   KJ-2. AQ-IM may be aided by changing security concerns,…

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Confidential

Migrants from West Africa Face New Challenges

According to the UN Migration Agency, at least 62 people died when their boat sank off the coast of Mauritania, on fifth of December. The ship was carrying around 150 migrants coming from The Gambia, trying to reach the Canary…

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Confidential

Libya: Shifting Into a Stalemated Proxy War

  Analysis As Libya’s complex civil war seems set to drag into a seventh calendar year, peace does not seem any closer to being achieved. One of the two rival governments, based in Tobruk, has the support of what some…

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