Confidential

Predictive Analysis of Conflict in Tigray, Ethiopia

    Key Judgements KJ-1. Armed conflict will highly likely continue and de-centralise in the following 6 weeks. Ethnic-driven civilian militias and the large unregistered amount of firearms make it highly likely that armed confrontations involving Tigrayan ethnicities will occur….

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Confidential

Predictive Analysis of West Saharan Conflict

Key Judgements KJ-1. It is likely military operations will remain along the southern border, with Morocco in a defensive position and the SPLA offensive. There has not been an intense uptick in violence since the conflict’s November resurgence, and reported…

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Confidential

Terrorism Outlook: United States

Key Judgements KJ-1. Based on the current statistical trends, it is likely that future terrorist attacks in the US will primarily utilize explosives, firearms, and incendiary devices. KJ-2. It is highly likely that US and international terrorist groups who target…

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Terrorism Outlook: Europe

  Key Judgements   KJ-1. It is almost certain that attacks have adapted their nature in the last 10 years decreasing in mortality but increasing in its aim on soft targets. The overall feeling of security is highly likely decreasing….

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Nigeria’s Response to the Cameroonian Crisis

    This report seeks to examine the ongoing crisis Cameroon is facing. The document informs the reader about the latest developments in the troubled regions, as well as the governmental and regional responses. For collection and processing, the author…

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How Ethiopia Reached the Brink of Civil War

  How Ethiopia Reached the Brink of Civil War.   Sudden reforms in the ethno-federal state system have drawn comparisons to the dissolution of Yugoslavia.   As the world waited with bated breath last Wednesday for the results of the…

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The Future of Tech Startups in DRC

  This article seeks to examine the importance of tech start-ups in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Despite the instability, a fraction of DRC’s young population invests their energy in technology. They aim to solve problems in agriculture, finance,…

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North Korean Small Arms Proliferation and Identification

  This report seeks to offer an assessment of North Korean small arms proliferation and identification, with a focus on Africa.   Key Judgements   North Korea can export its large stockpile of historic small arms, which are indistinguishable from…

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Turkey’s Military Influence: Neo-Ottoman Expansion into the Near East and North Africa?

      Key Judgements:   Turkish desire for autarky in the defence sector has led to a huge increase in domestic capability building but is far from self-sufficiency. Regardless, copying foreign developments is the natural precursor to more complete…

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Iranian Arms Trafficking in the Indian Ocean

               Key Judgements   KJ-1. Clear indicators of successful Iranian arms smuggling to Somalia or Yemen include Iranian-made RPG systems and North Korean-made Type 73 GPMGs.   KJ-2. Dhow-based arms smuggling is a large-scale operation, which…

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